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Monday, April 7, 2003
00:21 - That ain't good.

(top) link
Fox just finished hashing out its theories on a rather disturbing incident that was caught on camera an hour or so ago-- I saw it happen live, and since then the various commentators have been plying their speculation, with varying levels of success.

A camera position on a rooftop next to the bridgehead right behind the New Palace compound, where M1 tanks were positioned as though ready to cross the bridge into the eastern city, was feeding video to Abu Dhabi TV and Al-Jazeera. The camera was manned by Al-Jazeera's Tareq Ayoub, a Jordanian journalist.

A large bomb blast went off right between the tank on the bridge and the camera position; but it kept rolling. The footage showed an F-14 (?) streaking overhead, presumably having released the bomb.

Several minutes later, the camera captured the following sequence:



First one spray of concrete chips went up, right in front of the camera; then another, larger one, a little closer, a second later. Then, after another second, the camera suddenly tilted backward, skyward, and then fell sideways. The clip ended shortly afterwards (the feed cut away).

Fox's first theory was that the camera was actually sitting on top of a machine gun emplacement, and that those fragments we saw flying up into frame were shell casings. But commenters at The Command Post quickly dismissed that angle; the chips were clearly concrete, from incoming fire.

So we speculated (while Fox was fumbling with the timeline, getting the whole thing screwed up) that the tanks were prepping an assault across the bridge, and that they knew they had cameras on them-- so they called in a strike, either from the air or the ground, to take out the camera (like with taking Iraqi TV off the air-- with which this would be moralistically about equivalent, probably.)

But a more likely scenario, which Fox's commentators eventually explored as well, was that this was counter-sniper action; guns on the tanks probably saw the camera's lens and took it for a sniper scope, and returned fire. "If it looks like a sniper, you shoot first and evaluate later," said Joe in the comments.

But then there were those missile strikes beforehand-- three in all, they're saying. Sounds like they were pretty determined to hit that one spot. (In the video, you can see what do appear to be black-clad snipers; they may have been shooting at the tanks and the tanks called in strikes against the snipers, and then themselves turned and shot at the camera lens, thinking it was the sniper.)

So it's a mistake at best (or a justified action against a legitimate threatening target in a war zone), and a rather grave action at worst, and Fox has run the gamut. I'm sure we'll release a plausible alibi soon; I'm sure it will be defensible.

But I'm worried that we haven't seen the last of this video. I'm worried that even if we come up with a good alibi, the crystal clarity of the video will give it a life beyond our control. It will be adopted as clear and stark visual proof of the infidels' barbarity. It will elevate Tareq Ayoub, lamentable though his death is, to shaheed status. This video might be getting airtime five or ten years from now, in certain circles. We may have just created the Islamists' Danny Pearl.

I hope I'm wrong. Maybe this will not amount to anything; maybe both sides will come to agree on the unfortunate nature of misunderstandings and errors of judgment in the fog of war.

But I'm not holding my breath.


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