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Thursday, February 20, 2003
21:20 - Crystal Ball
http://www.denbeste.nu/cd_log_entries/2003/02/Theguidingphilosphybehind.shtml

(top) link
Steven Den Beste has laid out the European Thing as he sees it. In light of recent events, it's hard to argue with it. I had a couple of extra thoughts while reading through it, though; when I showed the article to Lance, he came up with the same reactions.

  • Regarding European regard for authority:
    The French masses understand nothing, which is normal. The masses are foolish, stupid, ignorant, lazy, and easily swayed by demagogues. Only an idiot would actually let them drive the bus, because they'd drive it off the edge of a cliff. Nations must be ruled by the elite, because they know what must be done and why. Any system which forces the elite to pander to the masses will destroy itself because the masses are slime.
    Something Den Beste has described in the past, but only alludes to here, is that Europe has that monarchistic past-- the serfs-and-lords system was invented there. It's only a minor logical leap to ascribe European (and particularly French) willingness to be ruled to a social history of being ruled. It's nothing new to them. Whether it's a king and a system of lords and vassals, or a socialist politburo-- meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

  • What about Germany? This piece paints a picture of a Franco-German bloc in Europe's future, but so far the big gaffes and visible slips-of-the-hand recently have all been on Chirac's side of the table. Schröder has been rather quiet lately, or at least I haven't heard anything from his direction. What do we deduce from this? That France is the real driver of the EU "vision", and Germany is just letting France self-destruct and trying merely to avoid the blast radius? Or that it's really Germany behind the scenes pushing the construction of the EU edifice, and France is a diversion that's all part of the master plan?

    Either way, once France and Germany are perched at the top of an EU which is the geopolitical equal of the US (assuming such a thing happens), what's the endgame? If everybody's actions are dictated by past enmity and friendship and alliances and social order, surely France and Germany aren't prepared to share power and supremacy. How could things destabilize? There are plenty of ways.

    France is a nuclear power. However, its nukes aren't under NATO control. Germany is not nuclear; it's got a constitutional ban on such weapons. If France and Germany should end up at one another's throats again in the future, one has to wonder whether France would threaten nuclear force-- and whether Germany would be willing to absorb such an attack while providing the assurance that it would cost France half its populace in ensuing conventional warfare. Germany's been through this before, after all-- they've had their cities levelled. And this time, France wouldn't have the Americans to back them up.

    Could any of these things happen today? Europe has become extraordinarily pacifist, and that's the whole crux of this European Social Order thing, with world government and international law and no need for war. But how much push and shove would it take to overcome that? Whether the EU succeeds or fails, it seems there's the potential for a Franco-German political clash, and that would mean a real World War III in Europe.

    It might seem as if such a thing couldn't happen in this day and age. But if the European powers claim to be Enlightened today, too Enlightened to ever go to war again-- I seem to recall an earlier age that was called the Enlightenment, and it preceded massive war too.


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